Wednesday, April 08, 2026
List Price Reductions Will Deflate the Gross-to-Net Bubble–and Threaten Pharmacy and 340B Profits from IRA-Negotiated Drugs (rerun)
Since this article was published last December, Net Pricing Drug Channel developments have accelerated. Manufacturers reduced the list prices for 6 of the 10 products with an MFP for 2026. They have also preemptively reduced list prices for three products that will have MFPs in 2027 and 2028. For more on these trends, see Section 12.1.1. of our new 2026 Economic Report on U.S. Pharmacies and Pharmacy Benefit Managers.
Click here to see the original post from December 2025.
Contrary to popular belief, the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) maximum fair prices (MFPs) could temporarily boost profits for retail pharmacies serving Medicare Part D patients.
The bad news? The IRA is also one of the five key forces deflating the gross-to-net bubble.
That’s why any IRA-related pharmacy profits will vanish if manufacturers lower list prices to be closer to net prices. At least 13 brand-name drugs—five of which have MFPs—reportedly plan to reduce list prices within the next two months.
As I show below, retail pharmacies risk becoming collateral damage from significant deflation in the gross-to-net bubble for drugs subject to an MFP. Welcome to our bonkers healthcare system—where everyone wants lower prices, until they actually get them.
What’s more, list price cuts will reduce profits from 340B contract pharmacy operations, while weakening covered entities’ main objections to a 340B rebate model. Get ready for a 340B slowdown.
Tuesday, March 03, 2026
Preorder Now: DCI’s 2026 Economic Report on U.S. Pharmacies and Pharmacy Benefit Managers
12 chapters, 500+ pages, 270 exhibits, and nearly 1,300 endnotes. No other resource matches the scope, depth, and rigor of this resource.
We are offering you the opportunity to preorder the thoroughly updated, revised, and expanded 2026 edition at special discounted prices. Preordering guarantees early access and locks in the lowest available price. Those who preorder will receive a download link before March 30.
- Download a free 32-page pre-publication overview (including Key Industry Trends, What's New in this edition, the Table of Contents, and a List of Exhibits)
Email Marie Caldwell (mcaldwell@hmpglobal.com) if you’d like to bundle the report purchase with access to DCI’s video webinars.
Special preorder and launch pricing discounts will be valid through April 6, 2026. After that date, prices increase. Secure your discount now.
The report was researched and written by the Drug Channels Institute team, led by Adam J. Fein, Ph.D. As shown below, the 2026 edition delivers unmatched depth and breadth. The numbers indicate the report chapter that corresponds to, explains, and analyzes each channel flow.
The 2026 Economic Report on U.S. Pharmacies and Pharmacy Benefit Managers contains the most current market and industry data available, including DCI’s annual analyses of the market positions of the largest pharmacies, specialty pharmacies, and PBMs. Throughout the report, we have added new industry data, deepened our coverage of many topics, and expanded our analysis of emerging trends.
This definitive, nonpartisan report will aid pharmaceutical manufacturers, wholesalers, pharmacists, pharmacy owners, hospital executives, pharmacy buyers, benefit managers, managed care executives, policy analysts, investors, consultants, and anyone else who wants to understand and benefit from this ever-changing industry. If your organization competes, negotiates, invests, or sets policy in this market, this report will sharpen your strategy.
There are many notable updates in this 2026 edition, including:
- A new Section 4.3.4. analyzes manufacturers’ direct-to-patient (DTP) websites and TrumpRx within the broader context of patient-paid prescriptions.
- A new Section 5.5. deconstructs the three largest PBMs’ gross profits. Some of this material previously appeared in Chapter 11.
- Material in Section 7.1., Section 9.1., and Section 9.3. reflects the PBM legislative reforms contained within the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2026 (P.L. 119-75), which became law in February 2026.
- Material in Section 8.4. and Section 9.3. incorporates implications of the 2026 settlement between Express Scripts and the Federal Trade Commission.
- A new Section 6.3.3. reviews research on how the IRA’s implementation has affected out-of-pocket spending by Medicare Part D beneficiaries.
- A new Section 11.2.4. analyzes pharmacies’ dispensing profits under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA).
- A new Section 12.1.4. evaluates the potential implications of most favored nation (MFN) and tariff policies on the drug channel.
- In Section 12.3.1., our illustration of major vertical business relationships among drug channel businesses now incorporates affiliated third-party administrators (TPAs) and administrative services only (ASO) platforms.
- We have also improved our presentation of material about the IRA and the 340B Drug Pricing Program.
Thank you for your interest in our work. If you have any questions before purchasing a license to the report, please email me. We look forward to supporting your team’s success in 2026.
Wednesday, February 18, 2026
Medicare Part D Pharmacy Networks in 2026: Supermarkets Dominate as Drugstores Stall and Independents Walk Away
DCI’s exclusive analysis shows that 83% of seniors remain enrolled in PDPs with preferred pharmacy networks—essentially unchanged from 82% in 2025, but sharply lower than the 99% peak in 2023. Meanwhile, the number of major Part D plans offering preferred networks has fallen to a record-low eight.
The new enrollment data reveal a clear shift in competitive positioning: Albertsons and Publix are now preferred in every major plan. Walgreens is holding strong. Walmart—the company that invented the Part D preferred network model—has slipped to the middle of the preferred pack.
Meanwhile, smaller pharmacies have fully abandoned PDPs’ preferred networks in 2026.
At the same time, the IRA’s expansion of the Low-Income Subsidy (LIS) means a growing share of beneficiaries have little financial incentive to use a preferred pharmacy at all. Add in the PBM reforms in the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2026, and the preferred network model will gradually lose relevance.
Tuesday, February 03, 2026
Latest CMS Data Reveal Six Trends Reshaping U.S. Drug Spending
We spent an astounding $5,278,588,000,000 on healthcare in 2024. Yes, that’s $5.3 trillion!
Retail outpatient prescription drugs accounted for less than 9% of that total. More than half of net outpatient drug spending was paid by federal, state, and local government programs. Below, we delve into the spending trends, which reveal the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on Medicare spending, the boom in healthcare marketplaces, and the post-pandemic bust in Medicaid.
Contrary to what you might read, the government’s data show that drug spending growth was not driven by purportedly “skyrocketing” drug prices. In reality, nearly all of the increase in drug spending reflected higher utilization—more people treated, more prescriptions dispensed, and shifts among drugs dispensed—rather than higher net prices.
Prices may grab headlines, but utilization—and taxpayers—are driving the spending story. When prices stop being signals, markets stop being markets.
Tuesday, December 16, 2025
340B Hit $81 Billion in 2024: Why CMS and the IRA Are Poised to Cool the Program’s Runaway Growth (VIDEO)
For those who prefer watching to reading, I asked AI to turn our latest 340B analysis into a tidy little video.
Let me know what you think of this format and whether you'd like to see more.
Click here if you can't see the video below.
Monday, December 15, 2025
340B Hit $81 Billion in 2024 (+23%): Why CMS and the IRA Are Poised to Cool the Program’s Runaway Growth
For 2024, discounted purchases under the 340B program reached a record $81.4 billion—an astounding $15.1 billion (+23%) higher than 2023. The gross-to-net difference between list prices and discounted 340B purchases—a proxy for funds available to covered entities—also grew, to $66.4 billion (+$6.0 billion). Hospitals again accounted for 87% of 340B purchases.
How big is the program? 340B purchases are now more than 50% larger than Medicaid’s net prescription drug spending. The program now accounts for nearly one-fifth of the total U.S. gross-to-net bubble.
But thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 340B’s day of reckoning is coming soon. I expect 2026 to be the first year of structural 340B pressure as the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) continues its regulatory takeover of the 340B program. What’s more, I expect the program’s out-of-control growth rate to slow and for some long-overdue transparency to enter this notoriously opaque program.
Read on for our full analysis—and why the 340B swell may finally be breaking.
Wednesday, December 10, 2025
Who Will Pay for Prescription Drugs in 2033: DCI’s Takeaways from the Latest Government Forecasts (rerun)
Click here to see the original post from September 2025.
Over the summer, the boffins at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the latest projections for U.S. spending on healthcare. (See links below.) These data provide the latest official and apolitical look at the future of U.S. healthcare spending.
The top line projections highlight the government’s official view that prescription drugs dispensed by retail and mail pharmacies will have a modest impact on U.S. healthcare costs.
However, there are some notable changes from the previous forecast. CMS now expects that the Inflation Reduction Act’s changes to the Medicare Part D program will have a greater impact than previously projected, while private insurers will find drug costs creeping higher.
Below, we outline the four major takeaways from the latest projections, which continue to show that taxpayers—primarily via Medicare and Medicaid—will continue to dominate the employer-sponsored insurance market. And like it or not, vertically integrated insurers, PBMs, specialty pharmacies, and providers will continue to prosper.
Tuesday, December 02, 2025
List Price Reductions Will Deflate the Gross-to-Net Bubble–and Threaten Pharmacy and 340B Profits from IRA-Negotiated Drugs
The bad news? The IRA is also one of the five key forces deflating the gross-to-net bubble.
That’s why any IRA-related pharmacy profits will vanish if manufacturers lower list prices to be closer to net prices. At least 13 brand-name drugs—five of which have MFPs—reportedly plan to reduce list prices within the next two months.
As I show below, retail pharmacies risk becoming collateral damage from significant deflation in the gross-to-net bubble for drugs subject to an MFP. Welcome to our bonkers healthcare system—where everyone wants lower prices, until they actually get them.
What’s more, list price cuts will reduce profits from 340B contract pharmacy operations, while weakening covered entities’ main objections to a 340B rebate model. Get ready for a 340B slowdown.
For more on the intended and unintended consequences of the IRA—and its interplay with 340B—join me for my live video webinar, Drug Channels Outlook 2026, on December 12, 2025, from 12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. ET.
Thursday, November 13, 2025
Medicare Part D 2026: Preferred Networks Vanish as the PDP Market Collapses
DCI’s exclusive analysis of Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) data reveals:
- The number of PDPs has plummeted by 55% since the IRA’s passage, to a record low of 360 plans for 2026.
- Preferred cost-sharing pharmacy networks are disappearing, with their share falling to the lowest level since 2014. That’s a post-IRA net loss of 505 plans with these networks.
- Just five companies—Aetna, Health Care Service Corporation, Humana, UnitedHealthcare, Wellcare—will account for 94% of all PDPs in 2026. In recent years, four major plan sponsors—Cigna, Clear Spring Health, Elevance Health, and Mutual of Omaha—have exited the PDP market.
Even with the demonstration program handouts, the Part D market is increasingly fragile: fewer choices, greater concentration, and massive disruption for beneficiaries.
Thanks, IRA! 🙃
What else should you expect for 2026? Find out during my upcoming live video webinar, Drug Channels Outlook 2026, on December 12, 2025, from 12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. ET. Click here to learn more and sign up. As always, we are offering special discounts if you want to bring your whole team.
Tuesday, October 28, 2025
Drug Channels News Roundup, October 2025: Vertical Integration Woes, AFPs Gone Wild, Part D’s Decline, 340Bloat, and Dr. G’s ACIP Haunting
- Vampiric! How vertically integrated insurers can drain the lifeblood from the U.S. healthcare system
P.S. Join the ever-growing zombie horde that lurches after me and enjoy haunting commentary from the restless spirits of the DCI community.
Express Scripts’ new “rebate-free pharmacy benefit” model materialized too late for this month’s roundup. But I ain’t afraid of no rebates, so I’ll be bustin’ it soon on Drug Channels.
Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Drug Channels News Roundup, September 2025: Mark Cuban Wins (Again), Biosimilar Pricing Double Standards, Part D Collapse, Fresh 340B Facts, and The Pitt
P.S. Join my 65,000+ LinkedIn followers for curated links to neat stuff, along with sharp and thoughtful commentary from the DCI community.
Drug Channels Leadership Forum 2026
Drug Channels Institute is proud to host the 2026 Drug Channels Leadership Forum, which will take place from March 16–18, 2026, in Miami. Check out the agenda and request your invitation to this invite-only gathering of senior leaders from across the drug channel ecosystem. You must request an invitation to be considered for attendance. We will begin sending invitations in mid-October.
Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Who Will Pay for Prescription Drugs in 2033: DCI’s Takeaways from the Latest Government Forecasts
The top line projections highlight the government’s official view that prescription drugs dispensed by retail and mail pharmacies will have a modest impact on U.S. healthcare costs.
However, there are some notable changes from the previous forecast. CMS now expects that the Inflation Reduction Act’s changes to the Medicare Part D program will have a greater impact than previously projected, while private insurers will find drug costs creeping higher.
Below, we outline the four major takeaways from the latest projections, which continue to show that taxpayers—primarily via Medicare and Medicaid—will continue to dominate the employer-sponsored insurance market. And like it or not, vertically integrated insurers, PBMs, specialty pharmacies, and providers will continue to prosper.
Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Drug Channels News Roundup, June 2025: PBM Rebate Flow, 340B’s 2024 Boom, IRA Fallout, MFN Legal Risks—and Mark Cuban’s PBM Rant
P.S. Join my nearly 64,000 LinkedIn followers for daily links to neat stuff, along with sharp and thoughtful commentary from the Drug Channels community.
Tuesday, February 18, 2025
Vanishing Act: Why Small Pharmacies Exited Medicare Part D Networks for 2025
A few months ago , DCI highlighted how the largest pharmacy chains are participating as preferred cost sharing pharmacies in the 2025 stand-alone prescription drug plan (PDP) networks. Today, we update our exclusive analysis of how smaller pharmacies are participating via their pharmacy services administrative organizations (PSAOs).
As you will see below, the largest PSAOs have almost fully abandoned PDPs’ preferred networks in 2025. Plans from Humana, WellCare, and UnitedHealthcare will again not have any independent pharmacies participating via PSAOs as preferred pharmacies.
Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the PDP market is vanishing. Looks like the presence of smaller pharmacies in preferred networks will not be far behind.
Wednesday, December 18, 2024
Drug Channels News Roundup, December 2024: Crazy Medicare Reimbursements, Independents Grow (Really!), AFP Risks, Pharmacy History, GLP-1 Jokes, and Two Cool Dudes
In January, HMP Global acquired DCI. Thanks to our new friends at HMP, we will hold the Drug Channels Leadership Forum. This landmark event will take place in March 2025 in Miami. (If you haven’t done so yet, click here to request an invitation.)
Once again, I thank you, dear readers, for welcoming Drug Channels into your inboxes, browsers, and apps. I’m proud of the diverse and thoughtful audience who follows and comments on our unique content. The DCI community now includes more than 100,000 subscribers and followers from all parts of the industry. To stay in touch, you can sign up for an email subscription or follow me on LinkedIn.
We’ve enjoyed bringing you our perspectives and curated links in 2024. We hope that you had fun engaging with us and the DCI community.
Wishing you and your family health and happiness,
Adam and the DCI team
In this issue:
- Unexplainable pharmacy reimbursements in Medicare Part D
- Surprise! There are more (not fewer) independent pharmacies
- Plan risks from shady alternative funding programs
- A brief but enlightening history of pharmacy from 1385 to today
- Jim Gaffigan jokes about GLP-1s
Did you miss the Drug Channels Outlook 2025 video webinar? No worries! Just sign up to watch the replay and download the full slide deck.
Friday, December 13, 2024
Who Will Pay for Prescription Drugs in 2032: Four Takeaways from the New Government Forecasts (rerun)
The econowonks at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) recently released the latest projections for U.S. spending on healthcare. (See links below.) These data provide the latest official look at how the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will affect U.S. healthcare spending.
As you will see below, CMS projects that outpatient prescription drugs dispensed by retail and mail pharmacies will remain a small share of total U.S. healthcare spending. The Inflation Reduction Act’s changes to the Medicare Part D program, along with coming demographic shifts, will have a significant impact on future spending by government programs and consumers.
Nonetheless, taxpayers—primarily via Medicare and Medicaid—will continue to dominate the employer-sponsored insurance market. Like it or not, vertically integrated insurers, PBMs, specialty pharmacies, and providers will continue to prosper.
Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Large Chains’ Position in 2025’s Part D Pharmacy Networks: Supermarkets Take the Lead in a Shrinking PDP Market
Today, we examine the seven largest retail chains’ participation in the 12 major 2025 Part D networks that the five largest plan sponsors will offer. As always, we provide you with a handy table for tallying each chain’s participation and changes from 2024 to 2025.
As you’ll see, Albertsons and Publix are the only major retail chains that will be participating in all of the major PDP’s preferred and open pharmacy networks. Walmart and Walgreens will maintain strong participation, while CVS will pull back. Low-income subsidy (LIS) beneficiaries, whose ranks expanded due to the IRA, will continue to have no financial advantage for using a preferred pharmacy.
In a future post, we’ll delve into how smaller pharmacies will participate in the 2025 Part D plans, by examining the pharmacy services administrative organizations (PSAOs).
Speaking of 2025, please join Adam J. Fein, Ph.D., for his upcoming live video webinar, Drug Channels Outlook 2025, on December 13, 2024, from 12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. ET. Click here to learn more and sign up.
Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Medicare Part D in 2025: Preferred Pharmacy Networks Fade in a Collapsing PDP Market
For 2025, DCI’s exclusive analysis of Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) data reveals that the number of PDPs will drop to a historic low. What’s more, the share of plans with a preferred cost sharing pharmacy network will fall to its lowest rate in more than 10 years. Check out the distressing charts below and our review of the remaining national players (Aetna, Cigna, Humana, UnitedHealthcare, and WellCare).
The destruction of the Part D market marks yet another unintended consequence of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA). The IRA makes PDPs less economically viable and will drive even more seniors into Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MA-PD) plans—despite the challenges facing those plans. The 2025 decline will occur even after CMS gifted $7 billion to PDPs to prevent a complete collapse of the 2025 market.
Legislate in haste. Repent in leisure.
What else should you expect for 2025? Find out during my upcoming live video webinar, Drug Channels Outlook 2025, on December 13, 2024, from 12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. ET. Click here to learn more and sign up. As always, we are offering special discounts if you want to bring your whole team.
Tuesday, July 09, 2024
Who Will Pay for Prescription Drugs in 2032: Four Takeaways from the New Government Forecasts
As you will see below, CMS projects that outpatient prescription drugs dispensed by retail and mail pharmacies will remain a small share of total U.S. healthcare spending. The Inflation Reduction Act’s changes to the Medicare Part D program, along with coming demographic shifts, will have a significant impact on future spending by government programs and consumers.
Nonetheless, taxpayers—primarily via Medicare and Medicaid—will continue to dominate the employer-sponsored insurance market. Like it or not, vertically integrated insurers, PBMs, specialty pharmacies, and providers will continue to prosper.
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Why the IRA Will Encourage Part D Plans to Prefer High-List, High-Rebate Drugs (video)
In the video excerpt below, I walk through a mathematical example to show why the IRA will encourage Part D plans to prefer high-list, high-rebate specialty drugs, even as the government and manufacturers will prefer a low-list-price version. What’s more, a product with a maximum fair price (MFP) may also raise total costs for the healthcare system—despite the likely political posturing and spin.
If this clip whets your appetite for more, register to watch a replay of the full 90-minute video webinar from April.
Click here if you can’t see the video below.Curious about the IRA will disrupt the 340B market? Then register for The 340B Drug Pricing Program: Trends, Controversies, and Outlook, a new live video webinar with Adam J. Fein, PhD. Click here to learn more and reserve your spot at the June 21 webinar.
















