Below is my handy summary chart comparing the 2018 list with 2012’s top sellers. Since I last looked at these projections (in Top Ten Drugs of 2016), the list has changed significantly. Highlights of the latest forecasts:
- The number of specialty drugs in the top 10 has dropped vs. the 2016 projections. In 2018, 6 of the 10 best-selling drugs by revenue are projected to be specialty drugs, compared with 3 drugs in 2010 and 5 in 2012.
- The 2018 top 10 U.S. drugs have projected total revenues of $39.7 billion, which will amount to only $2.1 billion more than the top 10 in 2012. Consequently, 2018’s top 10 will also account for a smaller industry share than that of their 2012 counterparts.
- AbbVie’s Humira will remain the top seller, consistent with the article highlighted in the Drug Channels July news update.
Here’s a summary of the top 10 best-selling drugs as reported in the EvaluatePharma report, pages 25 and 37. (Click to enlarge.)
For the drugs projected in EvaluatePharma’s report, total domestic manufacturer sales of brand-name drugs were $246.0 billion in 2012. (See page 25.) By 2018, total brand sales are projected to be $296.4 billion, which represents a compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2%. Most of 2018’s top 10 will grow more quickly.
The table below, which appears on page 12 of the report, shows 2018’s top companies ranked by worldwide sales,. With a few exceptions, growth rates will be low to negative for most large pharma companies. (Click to enlarge.)
Global market share for the top 20 companies will drop from 66.0% in 2012 to 59.1% in 2018. As usual, EvaluatePharma wisely avoids predicting M&A transactions that would alter the rankings.
I can't hardly wait ... to see how these forecasts play out.